The Iowa caucuses are January 15, 2024, and represent the first opportunity for the GOP nomination contest to highlight candidate support.
Initially, I was going to wait to post this information later, mid-December. However, based on conversation earlier today, and my pledge to be publicly consistent and transparent, here’s an advance review of my expectations.
(#1) The full-throated DOJ, Jack Smith, Georgia and New York legal cases will likely trigger, like scud missiles in a blitz attack against Donald Trump, around 10 days prior to the Iowa caucuses. I’m not sure what the granular details of the Lawfare assault will look like; however, the timing will certainly be in/around these dates. The deepest part of the DC system that is in full alignment against Trump will be looking at this time frame as the first opportunity to hit Trump hard.
(#2) Simultaneous to this, keep in mind the Sea Island group have spent hundreds of millions on an organizational process for Ron DeSantis, that is now contingent upon an Iowa victory. Just like the timing of the Mar-a-Lago raid, there will likely be some background coordination between the administrative state in DC and the organizational assemblies of DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Again, this is the first opportunity for the ‘stop Trump’ apparatus to create an inflection point. If President Trump crushes the Iowa caucuses, he will destroy the GOPe narrative.
(#3) This also creates the context timeline for us to consider an urgency by the deepest part of the DC control apparatus to influence public opinion. As a result, and given the recent remarks by platform operator Elon Musk, we may also see something happening with Twitter that blocks the ability of the assembled masses to communicate about whatever happens in #1. To a significant extent, MAGA has assembled discussion into a large Twitter stadium per se’. If the people controlling U.S. political outcomes want to hit hard, they will need a significant and timed disruption in the system of public communication. Scattering that stadium would be very effective.
The DHS artificial intelligence (AI) rollout into the ¹overall communication system, specifically social media, can also be considered as part of a disruption effort to influence the 2024 election. The national security labeling, definitions that establish censorship, removal and content control, will almost certainly flow through the pre-existing Public-Private partnerships. I would not be surprised to see the timing of that launch, in a full scale, somewhat in this same calendar period.
We all know the 2024 election is for all the marbles, so we just await the predictable incoming fire.
Smart wolverines will have preestablished iron dome defenses at the ready.
¹[GO DEEP] DHS’ AI task force is coordinating with the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency on how the department can partner with critical infrastructure organizations “on safeguarding their uses of AI and strengthening their cybersecurity practices writ large to defend against evolving threats.”