Decision Desk HQ — Townhall’s official election results partner — released its latest projection for the midterm elections just more than one week away and it reflects the momentum for Republican candidates that Townhall has reported in the final weeks of the 2022 cycle.
According to the Decision Desk model, U.S. Senate races in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the only remaining toss ups while North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin are all “Lean” or “Likely” Republican races. Their model has run more than 14 million simulations to find possible election night outcomes, and it now has a 50.4 percent chance that Republicans come out of the midterms with control of the Senate.
Underscoring the momentum of an apparently growing red wave, the DDHQ model has shifted toward Republican control by 3.9 points in the last day, 6.3 percent in the last week, and 14.2 percent in the last month.
One of the biggest signs of GOP momentum is the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz has had the wind at his back in recent weeks, carrying him to a three-point polling lead over Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman. In that contest, DDHQ’s model gives Oz a 53.1 percent chance of victory.