Welcome to the worst part of any election cycle. Early voting has ended and the final polls have been released. To a large extent, the electorate is set, and it’s just a matter of waiting for the final results. While some will continue to try to parse early voting data, we won’t learn anything of value again until late Tuesday night.

That means there’s a lot of time to develop cold feet, and some on the right are doing just that. A week ago, confidence was at an all-time high. On Sunday, things took a different turn after NBC News released its last poll showing Democrats leading the generic ballot by one point.

Democrats rejoiced, suggesting that the environment had shifted just in time. Of course, that’s absolutely ludicrous given NBC News’ final survey overestimated Democrats in each of the last two elections and it’s just a single poll, but I digress. The point is that the vibe shifted, whether that actually amounts to anything or not (we’ll address that in a moment). The euphoria was added to by a weekend rally in Pennsylvania that has some on the left actually believing they’ll keep the House now.

https://twitter.com/davidmweissman/status/1589060416730038272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1589060416730038272%7Ctwgr%5E7088823f34e3da7bd430bf4c413c07876faee608%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fbonchie%2F2022%2F11%2F06%2Ffresh-gop-dooming-emerges-just-prior-to-the-election-democrat-actions-tell-a-different-story-n655379

Listen, I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that I’m a little nervous heading into this final stretch. You never want to take a single thing for granted, and numerous past cycles have shown that you can never count out the “impossible” happening.

With all that said, I think this recent round of dooming isn’t warranted. As I mentioned, NBC News does not have a great track record, and another poll from ABC News on the same day showed Republicans leading by two points. Besides, what I have preached all year? The fundamentals matter, and ignore them at your own risk.

Joe Biden’s approval rating remains in the toilet, and the history of first-term mid-terms is still in effect. Further, pay attention to what Democrats are doing, not what they are saying.