Former President Donald Trump is threatening to become the first Republican presidential candidate in 40 years to win New York.
With Democrats in turmoil over whether President Joe Biden should continue as their party’s presumptive presidential nominee following the 81-year-old’s recent disastrous debate performance, it appears Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, is making inroads in the deep blue Empire State for its 28 electoral votes.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democrat Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said, Politico reported. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Biden won the state by 23 points in 2020. However, Trump’s support in New York City grew to 22.6% from 17.9% four years earlier, Spectrum News reported.
Politico on Wednesday reported that two private polls (one in September, one in March) conducted in a swing New York House district found Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie.
Now, Trump is taking aim on becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win New York since President Ronald Reagan did so in 1984.
In late-May, Trump hosted a campaign rally in the South Bronx neighborhood of New York, targeting a Democrat stronghold as he tries to chip away at Biden’s support among voters of color.
“Even if he [Trump] doesn’t win New York and New Jersey, if he comes close, what does that tell you about the rest of the country?” said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., Politico reported.
The Siena College poll in June found that Biden’s 12-point February lead over Trump had dwindled to an 8-point advantage.
It appears Biden’s waning support in New York goes beyond his age or the southern border issue. Polls show independent voters are more likely to side with Republicans in the presidential race partly due to higher taxes and crime.
“We were definitely alarmed at how bad he’s doing statewide,” one union official said, Politico reported.
Basil Smikle, a former executive director for the New York Democratic Party, said Biden needs to pick up campaigning with a new message in the state.
“The [Biden] campaign needs to do a better job of framing the argument that the choice is between a convicted felon and a president who has done a good job,” Smikle said. “It’s alarming they have to do this in New York, a progressive state with a progressive history.”
Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are so worried about Biden’s chance in New York and his effect down ballot they’ve been trying to convince the president’s campaign team to pour resources into the state.
Doing so, though, could hurt Biden elsewhere.
“The money that needs to be spent here will be subtracted from other areas he’s going to lose,” former Democrat New York Gov. David Paterson said, Politico reported.
House seats in the state, especially in battleground districts in the Hudson Valley and on Long Island, could help determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.
“If I’m a Democrat in some of these suburban races, I’d run the hell away from Joe Biden,” former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said, Politico reported.
